Bank of England still tipped to raise rates despite surprise dip in inflation

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Bank of England still tipped to raise rates despite surprise dip in inflation
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Inflation hit 6.7% in August, down from 6.8% in July, and significantly lower than the 7.1% that had been expected.

The Bank of England is still likely to hike interest rates on Thursday, but this week’s lower-than-expected inflation figures give decision-makers a little more leeway than they otherwise would have had, economists said.

But experts at Investec Economics said that while headline and services inflation had both fallen below the August forecasts, growth in private sector pay had overshot the Bank’s outlook significantly. They added: “We do not on balance think today’s softer numbers will change tomorrow’s decision – we continue to expect a 25 basis point hike to 5.5% as our baseline case – but the risks around this have changed and more clearly it calls into question the November rate decision.”

The increases have been an attempt to stem inflation, and the Bank’s Sarah Breeden, who is expected to join the MPC before November’s meeting, said this week she thought inflation could have been double the rate it reached without the Bank’s intervention.But a rise on Thursday is far from certain. James Smith, a developed markets economist at Dutch bank ING, called the decision a “close call”.

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