Tomorrow welcomes the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate announcement at 2 pm GMT. Markets and economists forecast the central bank will leave the Official Ove
rnight Rate on hold at 5.0% for a second consecutive meeting. Markets are also almost entirely pricing in this possibility—an 85% probability in favour of another pause. In fact, up until late 2024, markets are pricing in a standstill in the OOR—a clear higher-for-longer bias with no cuts nor hikes on the table.
ING: ‘Slower-than-expected inflation, a clouded growth outlook and higher bond yields mean the BoC is likely to overlook jobs tightness and keep rates on hold on 25 October. There is still all the interest in keeping a higher-for-longer narrative alive, but markets may start to shed some doubts on it. A sustainable decline in USD/CAD looks like a 2024 story to us’.
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