AUD/JPY rates continue to consolidate in a potential bull flag, which has been in place since the middle of June. On the other hand, AUD/USD rates lost their recent uptrend, suggesting a retest of the August low may not be far away.
AUD/USD: Retail trader data shows 65.09% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.86 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 9.39% higher than yesterday and 38.82% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 20.96% lower than yesterday and 32.37% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.AUD/JPY rates are in a familiar area, continuing to trade around the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the March 2020 low/May 2021 high/August 2021 range at 92.92 and the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 2013 high/2020 low range at 94.68.
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