Australia's central bank was counting on the economy to keep surprising with its strength when trimming stimulus earlier this month, but might now be forced to reconsider as coronavirus lockdowns spread across the country.
Minutes of its July 6 policy meeting, showed the Reserve Bank of Australia policy Board considered economic outcomes had been "materially" better than expected, particularly in the labour market.
However, activity has since taken a turn for the worse as lockdowns in the states of New South Wales and Victoria shut shops, restaurants and construction sites. The overall confidence index dropped 5.2% last week, the sharpest drop since March 2020, with buying intentions for major items taking a particularly hard hit.
"The evolving situation in Greater Sydney and Victoria will lead to a contraction in Q3 GDP," warned CBA senior economist Belinda Allen.
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