As a new national poll shows Joe Biden and Donald Trump tied, stevebenen explains why it's a mistake to pay too much attention to 2024 general election polling.
The new national New York Times/Siena College poll offers a mixed bag for President Joe Biden. The Democrat has stronger support from his party than a year ago, but the incumbent still has a low approval rating, and much of the public isn’t giving the president credit for the nation’s improved standing. The result, as, is a 2024 race in which he appears to be tied with his likely Republican rival.
Perhaps most worryingly for Democrats, the poll found Mr. Biden in a neck-and-neck race with former President Donald J. Trump, who held a commanding lead among likely Republican primary voters even as he faces two criminal indictments and more potential charges on the horizon. Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were tied at 43 percent apiece in a hypothetical rematch in 2024, according to the poll.
At this point, readers might expect me to spend a few paragraphs marveling at how Trump could be tied with Biden, despite the twice-impeached, twice-indicted Republican’s record of corruption, incompetence, dishonesty, mismanagement, broken promises, and increasingly overt opposition to democracy and the pillars of our system of government.
But for those wondering who’s likely to win the 2024 election, I’d recommend great caution — because polling data this far out offers more heat than light.
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