The bank said its data show that lead times for high-end models of the latest iPhone are falling fast.
On Sunday, analyst Samik Chatterjee wrote that the lead time for the Apple iPhone 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max is falling rapidly, suggesting overall demand may not be as strong as for the prior year’s iPhone models.
There is greater likelihood the “mix of sales within iPhone 15 Series is tracking weaker than prior launches, with a higher proportion of volumes being allocated to the low-end models,” he wrote, saying that adds to “demand concerns.”Lead times—the amount of time it takes for consumers to get the phone they want—are seen as an indication of demand. The stronger the demand for high-end, expensive phones, the better for investors, given that those devices off higher profit margins.
Data for the fourth week after the phones were launched, tracking delivery and pickup information around the world, showed lead times for high-end iPhone 15 models dropped to 32 days from 37 the prior week, Chatterjee wrote. The comparable period for high-end iPhone 14 models was 36 days.The iPhone 15 and 15 Plus start at $799 and $899, respectively, and include the A16 Bionic chip from last year’s Pro models, along with a slightly better camera.
“The decline in lead times over the past week, following a steep decline in the week prior, is reinforcing the likelihood of elevated lead times for the high-end iPhone 15 models immediately following the launch having been driven by early order momentum and/or supply availability,” he wrote. Chatterjee has an Overweight rating on Apple shares and $230 price target. He didn’t change his rating or forecast. Apple stock is up 36% this year, outstripping the Nasdaq Composite’s 28% gain.
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