Analysis: Where candidates in Joe Biden’s position at this point have ended up
Former vice president Joe Biden arrives at the train station in Wilmington, Del., on April 25. By Philip Bump Philip Bump National correspondent focused largely on the numbers behind politics Email Bio Follow April 25 at 12:58 PM Every candidate wants to lead in the polls. It’s not always the most useful thing to be outpacing your competitors; donors, for example, may be less likely to pony up if they think you’re going to win regardless.
We created a Twitter account that will show you how past candidates were faring at this point in a cycle. On this day in 2015, Clinton was up by about 57 points. The pattern, though, offers a mixed preview for Biden: Two of the four Democratic candidates who led in an average of polls in April the year before a presidential election went on to win the nomination.On the Republican side, the results were the same. Twice, the front-runner in April went on to win the nomination — George W. Bush in 2000 and Mitt Romney in 2012. Twice, the leading candidates lost. Those were former New York mayor and now Donald Trump defender Rudolph W.
The two candidates who led in April and went on to get the nominations were former vice president Al Gore in 2000 and Clinton in 2016. Each had a lead of at least 40 points at this point in the cycle.
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