Diplomats say that Turkey’s jailing of philanthropist Osman Kavala is a blow to its ambitions to heal frayed ties with Western countries, despite having scored political points over Ukraine
Less than two hours after the two shook hands, a big part of the goodwill that Ankara has engendered in the West through its unique role as mediator between warring parties was undone, undermining Turkey's chances of capitalising on thawing ties.
Wariness of boosting Erdogan ahead of 2023 elections that recent polls suggest he could lose have also undermined chances of meaningful trade or investment deals, including progress updating a European Union customs union, several of the diplomats said. At the weekend, Erdogan's spokesman and chief foreign policy adviser Ibrahim Kalin made a surprise visit to Kyiv to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. He later said he discussed ways to end the war.
Turkey's stance of facilitating negotiations and opposing sanctions on Moscow on principle "can only last so long," said a third diplomat. Some analysts said the Kavala ruling, by courts some critics believe are influenced by Erdogan, served to warn the opposition ahead of the vote. The president may have been emboldened by diplomatic cover the war afforded him, they added.
Turkey's stance on the war, including allowing flights from Moscow, has made it a top destination for Russian citizens, funds and even sanctioned assets such as oligarchs' yachts.
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