Analysis: If there is rain at the 2019 Kentucky Derby, this 12-1 long shot could win it all
Horses get baths after a workout at Churchill Downs. By Neil Greenberg Neil Greenberg Reporter analyzing advanced sports statistics for The Washington Post Email Bio Follow May 2 at 11:43 AM The Kentucky Derby has been run over a sloppy or muddy track five times over the last decade, including last year when Justify earned the first jewel of his Triple Crown.
His pedigree looks very good on paper. His sire, Hat Trick, is a Group 1-winning miler in Japan and Hong Kong by 1989 Kentucky Derby winner Sunday Silence. His dam’s sire, Smarty Jones, winner of the 2004 Kentucky Derby over a sloppy track, boasts a 17 percent win rate among his offspring on wet tracks. Win Win Win also inherited a lot of speed from these two horses — his dosage index of 4.
Putting Win Win Win’s troubled trip aside, his performance in the Blue Grass Stakes was impressive. Keeneland is a speed-favoring track, so Win Win Win’s ability to close into a fast pace is notable. Plus, he set a new career pace top in that outing which typically foreshadows a step forward in a horse’s next race.
“He’s a seriously nice horse,” Pimentel told Joe Clancy, editor and publisher of thisishorseracing.com. “When he won going seven-eighths at Tampa, the question was always if he could run longer. Now it looks like he can run all day. He has done everything right even though he hasn’t won again. He’s been running at the end. That shows that he’s a nice horse. At Keeneland, you check a horse like that and sometimes they don’t come back. They give up. It’s nobody’s fault, it happens.
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