Analysis: If the Nationals want to keep Anthony Rendon, it’s really going to cost them
Anthony Rendon will reach free agency after this season. By Neil Greenberg Neil Greenberg Reporter analyzing advanced sports statistics for the Fancy Stats blog Email Bio Follow April 2 at 12:49 PM By now everyone has read about why Bryce Harper spurned the Washington Nationals’ long-term contract offers in favor of more lucrative 13-year, $330 million contract from the Philadelphia Phillies.
Anthony Rendon's barrel rate “We love Anthony,” Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo said in February. “He’s a guy I scouted for a long time. We drafted, signed and developed him into an elite player. He’s a guy we look at [being] in a Nationals uniform for a long time to come. We’ve had prior conversations that didn’t bear any fruit, but we’re going to continue to have dialogue.”
Figuring out the future worth of any player isn’t an exact science, but we can get an estimate that’s reasonable. The first step is using a modified version of Marcels, a simple forecasting system created by baseball analyst Tom Tango, called WARcels, which only uses a player’s wins above replacement as its gauge of performance. That, in turn, is regressed to the mean and adjusted for age, giving us a ballpark value for a player over any length of time in the future.
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