Analysis: Are nonreligious Democrats emerging as a counterweight to the evangelical right?
Polly Olson holds up a heart that says"Jesus Loves You" during an event with President Trump last month. By Philip Bump Philip Bump National correspondent focused largely on the numbers behind politics Email Bio Follow April 1 at 4:12 PM The New York Times’s Thomas Edsall raised an interesting point in a column published last week: The extent to which the electorate was growing more liberal was itself bad news for President Trump’s reelection bid.
Most of those evangelical Protestants are white. White evangelical Protestants make up about 19 percent of the population, according to Burge. So how does this overlap with politics? Well, fairly directly. While white evangelical Protestants are heavily Republican — and among Trump’s most fervent supporters — nonreligious Americans are more likely to vote Democratic. In the 2018 midterm elections, exit polling suggests that 75 percent of evangelical voters preferred the Republican candidate in their local House elections. Seven in 10 voters without a stated religion cast a ballot for the Democrat.
Notice, too, that these are white evangelical Protestants, the group that Burge estimates make up only 19 percent of the population. In other words, evangelical voters make up a much heavier portion of the electorate than of the population, while nonreligious voters make up less of the electorate than of the population. That skews things in favor of evangelical voters.
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