Analysis: Arab leaders keep trying to bury the Arab Spring
. “For years, the kingdom was among the main suppliers of arms to rebel groups that fought to overthrow the government in Damascus. In 2015, then-Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said if a political process failed to remove Assad, Riyadh would continue to support the opposition ‘to remove him by force.’”But after a few years of aggressive actions, especially with a costly war effort in Yemen, Riyadh may be recalibrating.
Despite the West’s supposed absence, “the West has not played a particularly positive role” for the region’s democratic hopes, Houry said. In Sudan, the United States seemed more preoccupied in getting the country’s generals on board with an agreement to normalize ties with Israel than guiding a genuine transition back to democracy.
, a nonprofit rights organization, found that Egypt and Saudi Arabia — U.S. allies — have deployed a whole tool kit of repression to intimidate and silence dissidents even on U.S. soil. “While U.S. politicians frequently voice outrage and impose consequences in response to such tactics on the part of adversaries such as China, Iran and Russia,”
, “policymakers have not meaningfully held Saudi Arabia and Egypt to account — including for behaviors that violate U.S. law and threaten national security.”Arrayed against this status quo, protesters and pro-democracy activists can’t be faulted for feeling pessimistic. But the conditions for future upheaval are as present as ever.
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