Iran cannot rival Ukraine and Taiwan for headlines, but it could soon prove as dangerous. Its nuclear-weapons programme has put its regime in a position to dash for a bomb
as either. Its nuclear-weapons programme has put its regime in a position to dash for a bomb. Because full-blown negotiations are impossible, the threat could yet draw the Middle East into war—including through American strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. That is why it is good that the Biden administration is seeking to lower tensions.a pact between Iran and a group of world powers, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action , Iran has faced fewer constraints on its nuclear programme.
Mr Trump viewed this as “the worst deal ever”, yet he also decided against a military strike . Iran has responded by accelerating its enrichment activity and continuing to act as a menace in other ways. It has supplied fleets of drones to Russia. Since September, after a young woman died in the custody of Iran’s morality police, it has crushed anti-regime protests at home. In February international inspectors found particles of uranium enriched to 83.
The new arrangement being discussed between America and Iran—no one is calling it a deal—would seek to lower the temperature. Iran would cap enrichment at 60% and accept more inspections. America would ease sanctions somewhat, for example by letting Iraq and South Korea honour $10bn of payments they owe Iran. Congressional approval would not be needed.
The arrangement would reward Iran for slightly less dangerous behaviour even as it flirts with becoming a nuclear-weapons state. That sounds like a dreadful outcome, until you consider the alternatives. Mr Trump’s policy to bring about a collapse of the regime through sanctions has failed.has shrunk by 44% since 2012 in dollar terms, but the mullahs and Revolutionary Guards are retaining power by spilling blood: 349 people have been executed this year.
Today the conditions for a grand bargain with Iran are not in place. That could change. When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 84-year-old supreme leader, eventually dies it could trigger a succession struggle. A deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel could shake up Middle Eastern diplomacy. With an eye on its oil supplies, China could press Iran to act more responsibly.
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