The trust fund that pays for hospital insurance for patients of Medicare will run out of money by 2031, while the fund that pays old-age benefits for Social Security will be exhausted by 2033
, the annual report from the Social Security and Medicare Board of Trustees is as hotly anticipated as a thriller. Admittedly, those circles are not very wide. Read the latest report, released on March 31st, and you can see why most people are happy to avoid the gruesome hobby., the health-insurance scheme for the elderly, will run out of money by 2031; that is actually a reprieve from the previous estimate of 2028, because of the deadliness of covid-19.
Both programmes would not exactly implode upon the exhaustion of their trust funds, which are built up by payroll taxes levied on workers. But, without intervention, their benefit levels would drop to match current receipts. The latest projections point to an 11% haircut for Medicare and a 23% one for Social Security when their trust funds run dry. Yet the politics of entitlement reform are so unpalatable that there is little appetite to tackle the problem.
But Republicans in Congress are almost unanimous in agreeing that they have no plan to touch Social Security and Medicare, seen as a political third rail that previously shocked both President George W. Bush and Paul Ryan, a former Republican speaker. Mr McCarthy has declared any such discussions “completely off the table”.
After years of federal profligacy, both parties are pledging austerity in the future. Mr McCarthy says he will come up with a plan to arrive at a balanced budget in the next decade without cutting entitlements or defence spending—which is rather like a mathematician saying he will demonstrate how to square the circle in a decade.
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