Official estimates show that net interest costs will reach 3% of GDP by 2028
THE BOND market is sending a hopeful message about the strength of the American economy—and, perhaps, raising alarm about America’s unsustainable finances. The news is coming via surging rates on long-term bonds. When the Federal Reserve started raising its benchmark federal-funds rate in March 2022, long-term interest rates rose with it. This continued fairly steadily until the end of last year, when rates flattened out.
If interest rates and deficits do not come down, fiscal hawks warn, the cost of servicing America’s debt could rocket, crowding out other spending. The CBO estimates that, even assuming a drop in rates, interest costs by 2028 will reach $1trn, or 3.1% of projected GDP—more than will be spent on defence. Such figures should frighten policymakers in Washington.
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