The Amazon rainforest is teetering on the precipice of a dangerous tipping point, new research warns. It’s gradually losing its ability to bounce back after disturbances like droughts or other extreme weather events.
With enough time and forest losses, scientists say, large swaths of the Amazon could fall into an unstoppable spiral that would transform them from lush rainforest into grassy savanna.
Scientists have warned of an Amazon tipping point for years. Computer models and simulations have frequently shown that with enough future warming, the rainforest could eventually enter an irreversible transition to a new kind of ecosystem. How long it can keep holding on is the million-dollar question. The new study shows that an irreversible tipping point is inching closer — but it hasn’t arrived. And it’s still unclear how long it might take to get there.
‘There is still hope’ The Amazon rainforest is just one of many possible tipping points in the Earth’s climate system. Scientists generally agree that the ice sheets will likely melt at faster and faster rates in the coming decades, a growing concern for global sea-level rise. But catastrophic ice sheet collapse is highly unlikely anytime within the next 100 years. Similarly, the AMOC is expected to keep on slowing, but is unlikely to be at risk of collapse in this century.