Koala populations have been decimated by bushfires in recent years—and researchers are forecasting that bushfires will threaten them and their habitat even more in coming decades.
A team of experts in ecology and species distribution modeling has studied the impact climate change is having onacross the forests koalas depend on, finding a significant increase in susceptibility of these habitats to bushfires.
Through generating fire susceptibility maps for the present and in the year 2070, researchers were able to identify the threat that wildfires pose to koalas now and under future climate change, and found alarming outcomes.in Australia is highly susceptible to bushfires, but the modeling predicts this will rise to 44.61% by 2070. These percentages also reflect a general increase in the susceptibility of all Australian vegetation to bushfires.
"It is crucial to strike a balance between ensuring that koala habitats and populations are not completely destroyed by fire while also allowing for forest rejuvenation and regeneration through periodic burns." Using the dynamic Decision Tree machine learning algorithm, the research team generated a series of fire susceptibility maps. These show the proportion of Australia experiencing"high" or"very high" fire susceptibility increasing from 14.9% now to 15.66% by 2070—while fire susceptibility of areas suitable for the plants that koalas depend on is tipped to jump from 39.56% to 44.61% by 2070.
Of particular interest is that state-based modeling results showed that fire susceptibility of koala habitat will increase more in South Australia and Queensland than in other states. By 2070, 89.11% of the total koala habitat in South Australia and 65.24% in Queensland is projected to have high or very high fire susceptibility.
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