Ahead of first-draft state budget, oil prices are driving a tighter Alaska fiscal picture

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Ahead of first-draft state budget, oil prices are driving a tighter Alaska fiscal picture
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The lowest crude oil prices of the year are coming at a bad time for Alaska. (via AlaskaBeacon)

lowest crude oil prices of the yearThis week, as required by state law, Gov. Mike Dunleavy will unveil his first budget plan of his second term. Accompanying that plan will be a significantly smaller state revenue forecast.

Oil prices will go up and down, Dunleavy said Tuesday, shortly before the annual holiday open house at the Governor’s Mansion in Juneau, and in the end, the budget will be a collaboration between his office and the Legislature. Oil revenue accounts for about a third of the state’s general-purpose income, and since 2019, the state has relied on a five-day average of global oil futures markets to estimate the future price of Alaska oil. The futures market is an auction for oil to be delivered on a future date.

Most of the state’s general-purpose revenue continues to come from the earnings of the Alaska Permanent Fund, and for FY24 that figure is solid: $3.5 billion, according to the Alaska Permanent Fund Corp.

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