Change is sweeping through Scottish politics in unexpected and stunning ways. Since Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation, a romantic movement that drew on a vaulting narrative of history has come to look humiliatingly small
SNP
An independence referendum is off the agenda, perhaps for the rest of the decade. It already faced two obstacles. One was constitutional: in November 2022 the British Supreme Courtthat the Scottish Parliament could not legislate for a vote without Westminster’s permission. The second was electoral: support for independence never achieved a sustained and clear majority of the sort which might have forced British prime ministers to accede to another referendum.
The party’s monopoly over nationalist voters is meanwhile weakening: since January, the proportion of “Yes” voters who say they will vote for thein a Scottish Parliament election has fallen from 79% to 65%. Mr Salmond, now leading Alba, a pro-independence conservative splinter party, proposes that nationalists should run for election on a single ticket.
All the while, difficult questions about the state of the country are becoming harder to dodge. Scotland’s health service is struggling to recover from the pandemic; its school performance is slipping behind England’s. Growth is not good enough: the productivity gap with the rest of Britain shrank in the early years of devolution but has remained roughly constant since 2014.
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