“Cribsheet” by Emily Oster offers an instructive look at decision-making
FOR NEW parents, it is a terrifying moment. The hospital doors close behind them, leaving them with a new and helpless human being. The baby’s survival into adulthood seems impossible. What if it will not eat? What if it is allergic to water? What if an owl carries it off? Probably, few parents wish at that moment for the help of an economist.
The help she provides begins with sorting through published research and determining what is worth heeding. This involves more than identifying outright disinformation, of the sort published by anti-vaccination groups. The conclusions of serious research also need to be treated with care. Unless studies are well-designed, the results can be influenced by confounding factors.
Still, given the potential benefits, why not do it? Economic analyses include not only what is gained by a choice, but what is foregone. For example, putting an infant to sleep beside a parent in bed rather than alone in a cot is associated with a higher risk of sudden infant death. If there are no exacerbating factors , that increased risk is tiny: 22 deaths in 100,000, rather than eight. But why risk it? The answer may be that it is worth it.
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