A third indictment may just reinforce GOP voters’ belief that Trump is being persecuted, but rival candidates could play up electability concerns.
did not legitimately win the 2020 election. To those who believe Trump’s agitated conduct up to and including January 6 represented a righteous reaction to a stolen or at least credibly contested result, evidence that he was fighting like hell to to prevent Biden’s inauguration will reinforce his claim that he was battling to keep them from being disenfranchised.
If a January 6 indictment does turn out to be the tipping point that sends Trump’s intra-party popularity spiraling down, who’s in the best position to take advantage of it? The most obvious answer is DeSantis, partly because he has the money, the elite support , and standing in the polls to pose a credible challenge to the front-runner when voters begin voting in Iowa next January. The Florida governor has also worked hard to position himself as a, perhaps even Trumpier than the master himself.
But at this point, the most likely damage to Trump stemming from his legal peril and the evidence of his misconduct is to his strength as a general-election candidate. If his electability takes a big and tangible hit, then perhaps DeSantis — or if he’s yesterday’s news, maybe a “fresh face” like Tim Scott or even a late entry like— could gain some traction.
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