Natural variations are currently the main cause, but climate change should continue to cause it to slow down
A gigantic ocean current, which transports heat around the globe and helps regulate weather patterns throughout the North Atlantic, appears to be slowing down. In fact, recent research has found that it’s currently at its weakest point in the last 1,000 years.For now, scientists say, it’s probably some of both.
Still, that’s likely to change at some point in the future. Climate models indicate that human-caused global warming should cause the current to continue slowing over time. If the world keeps on warming, the current’s behavior eventually should tip outside the bounds of natural variability, flowing into uncharted territory.
If the current continues to slow, it could disrupt weather patterns throughout the midlatitudes. Parts of the North Atlantic may cool, while areas farther south along the U.S. East Coast may get warmer.Multiple studies in recent years have made it clear the AMOC is slowing. Some research suggests it may have been weakening for at least 150 years.
The new study uses historical records of sea surface temperatures throughout the Atlantic, dating back to the year 1900. Because changes in the AMOC’s flow can affect ocean temperatures in different ways throughout the region, these records can help scientists evaluate how the current has changed over time.
This doesn’t mean the current isn’t slowing or that global warming isn’t playing a part, Latif cautioned. The current is, indeed, slowing down. And even if it’s still within the bounds of natural behavior, the influence of climate change is getting stronger all the time in the background.
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