First estimate of extreme heat's impact suggests more than half of the deaths are expected to have been for people aged 85 and older
at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine estimates that 948 people died in England and Wales because of the sweltering conditions between 17 and 19 July. More than half, 495 people, are estimated to have been aged 85 or older, a group that compromises roughly 2 per cent of the nations’ population.Most of the deaths, 844, are estimated to have occurred on the two hottest days, 18 and 19 July. In a typical year, England and Wales would be expected to see 791 heat-linked deaths.
The numbers are derived from modelling how many deaths would be expected in different parts of the country depending on how high temperatures go, rather than. That official process usually takes much longer than the near real-time approach by Gasparrini. He arrived at his findings, which are being considered for publication in a scientific journal, by extrapolating from research. That study calculated the risk from heat for different age groups in almost 35,000 small geographical areas across England and Wales between 2000 and 2019.
The estimated 948 excess deaths in just three days is the central estimate of a range of between 618 and 1141 in the worst case. Chloe Brimicombe at the University of Reading, UK, says it looks “in line with expectations” for the anticipated toll from the heatwave.The geological record of climate change
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