Oil prices have sunk to pre-war levels. They are unlikely to remain there
without causing global prices to spike since February. Both aims are seemingly being achieved at present. Russia exports as much oil as before its invasion of Ukraine, but Urals crude, the main grade it pumps, trades at a 37% discount to Brent, the global benchmark, meaning Moscow gets a poor deal. Brent, meanwhile, has fallen to an annual low of around $80 a barrel , meaning consumers face less of an energy crunch.
The West’s boycott of Urals, which accounts for 10-15% of the world’s crude supply, is probably bringing its price down a bit, as the grade undercuts others. An exemption to Europe’s ban on insurance for tankers carrying Russian oil, which applies to buyers that agree to pay a maximum of $60 per barrel, may be helping to prevent a supply shock. But neither measure is having a huge impact. If economic or market conditions change, prices could jump.
By the second quarter of 2023 there may be another oil shortage. Industrial users in Europe are switching from natural gas to cheaper gasoil. Consumption in India and the Middle East is proving more resilient than expected. China’s reopening will probably fuel an economic rebound after cases peak.
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