Data for September add to a worrying trend
In June Vivek Ramaswamy, a Republican presidential hopeful, posted two covers of Time magazine on social media. The first, from 1973, had the headline “The Big Freeze”; the second, from 1979, proclaimed “The Cooling of America”. Both, he argued, showed how the world once fretted about “global cooling” instead of global warming. This was evidence, he said, of “climate cult mania” today. Neither cover was in fact about the environment .
’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies each month release analyses of global temperatures for the previous month. None has ever been as dramatic as those for September. Not only was it the hottest September on record, it was also the month with the most excess heat ever. ’s data, published on October 13th, showed an average monthly surface temperature of 1.47°C above the normal for Septembers in its base period of 1951 to 1980. Copernicus put September’s average absolute air temperature at 16.38°C, an astonishing 0.5°C warmer than the previous record. September’s spike, though extraordinarily large, is also not the first time in recent months that climate analysts have been forced to expand their y-axes.
. Even greater warming in September means it is almost certain that 2023 will be unprecedentedly hot—Berkeley Earth says it is more than 99% likely that it will be the warmest year since its records began in 1850. The group also reckons that it is more than 90% likely that 2023’s average temperature will be the first to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. That would be a watershed moment.
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