Bonds Analysis by James Picerno covering: United States 10-Year, 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread, United States 10-Year TIPS. Read James Picerno's latest article on Investing.com
continues to rise, pushing ever higher above CapitalSpectator.com’s “fair-value” estimate, which is based on averaging three models. The trend highlights the limitations of models, at least in the short, for estimating near-term changes in bond yields. But reviewing the recent divergence reminds us that the current spread, although extreme by the standards of recent years, isn’t unprecedented.
“The compensation that investors require for bearing the risk that interest rates may change over the life of the bond,” per the New York Fed’s definition. Alternative theories range from rising doubts about America’s creditworthiness to fears that inflation will stay higher for longer and so the Federal Reserve will be forced to continue lifting interest rates.
At the same time, the spread chart above suggests that the current divergence isn’t unprecedented – far from it. At one point in the early 1980s, the spread briefly topped 3 percentage points — well above the current level.
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